Florida’s population influx has dramatically slowed in 2025, with net domestic migration dropping to just around 22,500–23,000 people according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau estimates. This represents a steep 93% decline from the pandemic peak of over 310,000 in 2022 and falls well below the state’s long-term historical average of roughly 130,000–140,000 annually. Florida, once the undisputed leader in attracting American movers, now ranks only 8th nationally—behind states like Alabama, which edged it out slightly.
This sharp reversal stems from a combination of affordability challenges that have eroded the Sunshine State’s post-pandemic appeal:
- Skyrocketing home insurance premiums — Driven by frequent hurricanes, high litigation costs, and reinsurance expenses, average premiums surged significantly from 2020 levels (often cited in the 40–55%+ cumulative range through peak years), pushing many policies well above national norms and making ownership far costlier.
- Rising property taxes — Increases of 20–30% in high-demand counties have compounded monthly housing expenses.
- Wage growth lagging — Annual wage increases of only 3–4% have failed to keep pace, squeezing budgets for potential buyers and current residents alike.
These pressures have cooled demand, leading to a noticeable shift in the Florida housing market. Inventory levels have risen as fewer people relocate and some existing owners list properties, triggering a price correction in several major metros.
Recent data shows:
- Statewide median home values in Florida dipped modestly overall, with Zillow reporting an average home value down approximately 5.1% year-over-year in late 2025.
- In Miami, home values fell around 4.8–10.8% (varying by source and exact timeframe), with median sale prices reflecting sharper localized drops.
- Tampa experienced declines of 4.4–6.1% in typical home values, with median prices also trending lower (e.g., around $356,000–$460,000 range depending on metric).
This echoes patterns seen during the mid-2000s housing bust, when rapid migration reversals and oversupply led to significant corrections. While statewide growth persists thanks to international migration and natural increase, the domestic slowdown signals a return to more normalized (and sustainable) patterns after the extraordinary pandemic boom.
What This Means for Buyers, Sellers, and Investors
For would-be buyers, the combination of moderating prices and stabilizing (or in some cases declining) insurance pressures could improve affordability in 2026—especially if recent legislative reforms continue to attract new insurers and ease rate hikes.
Sellers in overheated markets may face longer days on market and the need for realistic pricing, while investors who chased pandemic-era appreciation might see softer returns unless focusing on long-term fundamentals like job growth in Orlando, Tampa, or Jacksonville.
Florida remains a desirable destination with no income tax, warm weather, and strong economic sectors—but the era of effortless, triple-digit-thousand annual inflows appears over for now. The market is rebalancing, creating opportunities for patient participants while cautioning against expecting a repeat of 2021–2022 frenzy.