The Florida housing market is beginning to experience noticeable shifts, with monthly home values declining in several key areas. According to data from the Zillow Home Value Index (HVI), Sarasota, Punta Gorda, Cape Coral, and Naples have seen some of the biggest declines in home values, ranging from -0.70% to -1.00% in August 2024, seasonally adjusted. Based on ground-level observations, these value declines are expected to continue and potentially increase as 2024 progresses.
Miami Holding Steady, But for How Long?
Interestingly, while many areas in Florida are seeing a downturn, Miami is currently holding its ground. Miami-Dade County was the only large county in Florida to register an appreciation in home values, coming in at +0.30% in August 2024. This resilience is largely attributed to low inventory in the market. Currently, only 14,200 homes are available for sale in Miami-Dade, significantly lower than the 20,000+ homes that were on the market before the pandemic. This lower inventory is helping to sustain some moderate price growth for the time being.
The Inventory Game in Florida’s Housing Market
The overarching theme in Florida’s housing market right now appears to be inventory. Counties and ZIP codes with high inventory levels are experiencing more severe downturns in home values. In contrast, areas with lower or moderate inventory are not being as negatively impacted.
However, one area to watch closely is Broward County, located just north of Miami. Over the last year, inventory in Broward has surged to its highest level in at least seven years. This spike in available homes is already beginning to tilt values downward.
Counties to Watch: Osceola and Polk
Two other counties on the watchlist for potential home value declines are Osceola County (south of Orlando) and Polk County (between Orlando and Tampa). Both counties have seen a dramatic increase in inventory, with active listings now about 50% above pre-pandemic levels. This significant supply glut is likely to exert downward pressure on home prices in the coming months.
Conclusion
As we move further into 2024, the Florida housing market will likely continue to experience a divergence between areas with low inventory and those with higher supply levels. While Miami remains relatively stable for now, areas like Broward, Osceola, and Polk counties could see more pronounced declines in home values if inventory continues to rise. For buyers and sellers alike, understanding these local dynamics will be key to navigating the ever-changing real estate landscape in Florida.
